Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 30 2024 19:01:57

AWUS01 KWNH 301901
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-310100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0952
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Areas affected...Southwest VA through Central/Eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 301900Z - 310100Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
early this evening will result in additional concerns for flash
flooding, which will included the more sensitive urban
environments.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E IR satellite imagery has
been showing the development and expansion of rather rapidly
cooling convective tops across areas of southwest VA down through
portions of central and eastern NC. The convection is focusing
along a backdoor cold front where there is currently a substantial
amount of instability in place. MLCAPE values along the boundary
are on the order of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg and there is at least a
modest corridor of surface moisture convergence along it helping
to favor convective development and expansion.

PWs across the region are on the order of 1.75 to 2 inches, and
this coupled with the instability should help yield some
impressive rainfall rates upwards of 2.0 to 2.5 inches/hour. Aside
from the high rainfall rates, the steering motions are quite weak
and favoring slow cell-motions which at least in the short-term
may favor some rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 4 inches in just
couple of hours. This is becoming increasingly supported by the
latest HRRR runs which supports this threat continuing through the
late afternoon and early evening hours.

Given the high short-term rainfall rates/totals, areas of flash
flooding will be likely and this will certainly including concerns
for the more urbanized and sensitive urban corridors including
areas from near Greensboro down through the Raleigh-Durham
metropolitan area where there have already been heavy to excessive
rains over the last hour.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6o6c48qEphUaR6wBO3vmqc-f3KpmpD30YUWzRNRpSJ2C-yfjP8rY4shVtZCsc4g1a_eH=
rBGDAEYfoT11fs4-zpmJs5I$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37108041 36917985 36427918 36317780 36417686=20
            36237635 35927599 35117628 34667746 34907916=20
            35588030 36488088=20

=3D =3D =3D
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