Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 30 2024 17:27:59 AWUS01 KWNH 301727 FFGMPD TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-302325- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0951 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 126 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Areas affected...Much of NM...West TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301725Z - 302325Z SUMMARY...New rounds of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected today which may once again result in at least isolated areas of flash flooding. Some of the burn scar locations over central and northern NM will be most susceptible to impacts. DISCUSSION...The late-morning GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows an elongated, but fairly well-defined low-level circulation situated down over far southern NM and parts of west TX which is also focused along a frontal zone that has settled south down across the region over the last 12 to 24 hours. Some vertical depth to this extends to the mid-levels as WV satellite imagery shows some southwest extension of this back into far northern Mexico. A gradual increase in boundary layer instability over the next several hours combined with relatively focused low-level moisture convergence/forcing along the front should allow for areas of showers and thunderstorms to begin to redevelop and gradually expand in coverage. SBCAPE values have locally already risen to 1000+ J/kg, and these values should increase to as much as 1500 to 2000 J/kg by later this afternoon with a continuation of diurnal heating. The heaviest rainfall threat based off the 12Z HREF guidance should generally be down over areas of southern NM east-northeast out into areas of west TX which will be in close proximity to the front. However, areas back across central and northern NM will have concerns for at least some low-level upslope flow that will still be relatively moist which combined with the daytime heating should provide a focus for new areas of more terrain-focused convection. WV satellite imagery would suggest that the presence of the aforementioned mid-level troughing could provide at least some dynamical forcing regionally today which may also facilitate the development and expansion of convection. PWs locally are still 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above normal over eastern NM and west TX, and the available moisture and instability may still favor some stronger convective elements producing rainfall rates of 1.5 inches/hour. Some spotty 2 to 3+ inch rainfall amounts will be possible by later today. These rains will once again have the capability of producing at least isolated areas of flash flooding. This will include the more susceptible burn scar locations locally over parts of the southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains and the Sacramento Mountains, but also some of the open High Plains away from the terrain and especially across southeast NM and possibly west TX. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_E4L4siiX-X3kizE8eNIqOt2J3YgKsfQ5iuFSU3VWAr8QNnB8kEGVhMWaDLVCFj9ON7q= fZlaqu3MILqGnv42CkI274E$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...OUN...PUB...SJT...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37030600 36940476 36440442 35470488 34660482=20 34240438 34030373 34290214 34340060 33769992=20 32639989 32070104 31810271 31870465 32120625=20 32390821 33270907 34970894 35620829 36180720=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .