Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 30 2024 08:37:24

ACUS48 KWNS 300837
SWOD48
SPC AC 300835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Global models appear to be in reasonable agreement through the
medium range, with a long-wave upper trough crossing the eastern
U.S. Day 4/Monday, and then shifting into the Canadian Maritimes and
western Atlantic Day 5/Tuesday.  Weak/low-amplitude flow aloft will
prevail across the U.S. Day 5 and into Day 6/Wednesday, before the
pattern begins to amplify again through Days 7-8 (Thursday and
Friday, Sept. 5-6).  This amplification anticipated late in the
period will result in an eastern trough/western ridge configuration,
with a cold front to progress across the eastern half of the country
through the second half of the period.

However, with the prior (Day 3) frontal advance across the southern
U.S., and persistence of Canadian surface high pressure in its wake,
rich/Gulf moisture is expected to remain confined to southern
portions of the country.  This should limit severe potential with
the late-period system as it crosses the CONUS.  As such, no
severe-weather risk areas are being included in the forecast, as
overall potential appears likely at this time to remain low through
the end of the upcoming week.

...Goss.. 08/30/2024

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