Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 30 2024 07:33:53 ACUS03 KWNS 300733 SWODY3 SPC AC 300733 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms capable of producing gusty/damaging winds will be possible from New England to the Carolinas Sunday. ....Synopsis... A progressive/amplifying upper trough is forecast to continue shift eastward across eastern Canada/the eastern U.S. on Sunday, while upstream ridging prevails over the West. During the second half of the period (Sunday night), an eastern Pacific upper low should near/reach the Oregon/northern California Coast. At the surface, an initial cold front extending from New England to the Southeast will continue to dissipate. Meanwhile, a second/stronger front will continue shifting rapidly into the Northeast and across the Ohio Valley through the day, eventually overtaking the initial/weakening front. By Monday morning, the front will likely have moved off the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts, stretching westward from the Carolinas to Texas. ....New England to the Carolinas/southern Appalachians... As the reinforcing cold front advances quickly eastward/southeastward across the Northeast and central Appalachians Sunday, questions exist regarding potential for destabilization ahead of this front given the prior/dissipating front and associated convection lingering across the area at the start of the period. Presuming at least modest destabilization can occur, ascent along the advancing front combined with favorably strong flow aloft -- particularly across the Northeast -- would support fast-moving storms and attendant risk for damaging gusts through the afternoon and into the evening. While there are hints that sufficient moisture may linger across portions of New England to allow more substantial CAPE to evolve during the afternoon, which would yield greater severe potential, at this time uncertainty due to existing convection/cloud cover suggests that MRGL/5% risk remains most prudent at this time. ...Goss.. 08/30/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .