Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 30 2024 05:44:22

ACUS01 KWNS 300544
SWODY1
SPC AC 300542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower
Michigan later today, with more isolated strong/severe storms into
parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia into northeast Georgia.

....Great Lakes/Midwest Region...

Strong upper low, currently located over MB, will shift into
northwest ON by the start of the period. Notable short-wave trough
will advance from the upper MS Valley at 18z into the central Great
Lakes by 31/12z. At the surface, synoptic front will advance into
Lower MI-central IL-central OK by late afternoon. This boundary will
serve as the focus for potential robust convection, especially as
surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s. NAM forecast sounding
for KDTW at 20z exhibits negligible CINH, with MLCAPE on the order
of 2400 J/kg, though 0-6km bulk shear is seasonally weak. Deep-layer
flow will increase a bit into the early evening hours, so updraft
organization should be more favorable by this time. Even so,
forecast lapse rates are marginal and this may limit overall
severity. Southern extent of large-scale support should aid
convective development ahead of the front. Some risk for wind/hail
will exist with this activity.

....Southeast/Southern Middle Atlantic...

Weak deep-layer flow will be noted across the southern Middle
Atlantic and the Southeast today beneath the upper ridge.
Boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective
development this afternoon, especially along a stalled synoptic
front draped across NC/VA. Forecast soundings for this region
suggest convective temperatures will be breached as early as 17z,
and seasonally high PW values favor some risk for strong wind gusts
within pulse-type updrafts.

...Darrow/Moore.. 08/30/2024

$$

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