Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 30 2024 02:56:36

AWUS01 KWNH 300256
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-300800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0949
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia...Adj Northeast NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300255Z - 300800Z

SUMMARY...Highly efficient, slow moving thunderstorms moving
toward urban centers of southeast VA.=20

DISCUSSION...Mature clusters of thunderstorms are starting to
propagate along weak convectively generated cold pool toward the
southeast.   RADAR presentation depicts some modest back-sheared
updrafts to allow for increased duration as the outflow provides
increased convergence to overcome slowly growing overnight
stabilization across SE VA.  History of 3"+/hr rates should be
reducing with weakening overall updraft strength and overall
moisture flux; however, 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE remains and with
weak easterly flow directional convergent with the outflow is
providing the deep layer convergence to support new development.=20
Moisture at the lowest layer per CIRA LPW is over 1" with ample
850-700mb for continued efficient rainfall production.  Rates of
2-2.5"/hr are still probable and with forward propagation of
5-10kts on the cold pool, totals of 2-4" are still possible into
the early hours of Friday.  Larger urban centers will have higher
probability of quick exceedance and possible flash flooding
conditions from Richmond/Petersburg into the Newport News/Norfolk
centers over the next few hours.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7qKDVpLmSaIgBALgxDPIdfOr12wq_6slPLshJNdgwNJOLltKUC5vvLbOVSWKzSU_2OFG=
ffjaEG0APf8agUf3_pmikR8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38127680 37967629 37617553 36567577 36147630=20
            36067748 36167838 36397889 36757901 37267875=20
            37677825 37727813 38047734=20

=3D =3D =3D
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