Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 30 2024 01:30:06

AWUS01 KWNH 300130
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-300706-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0948
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Areas affected...much of Wisconsin, portions of northeastern Iowa
and southeastern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300106Z - 300706Z

Summary...Thunderstorms continue to produce 1-2 inch rainfall
amounts across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley.  Isolated
flash flood potential continues with this activity.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a mature,
forward-propagating convective complex extending from near Eau
Claire to Mason City.  A few cell mergers have been noted with the
complex over the past couple hours, and local rain rates continue
to approach 2 inches/hr in spots despite appreciable forward
movement.  The immediate downstream airmass remains sufficiently
moist/unstable for strong convection (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5
inch PW values), and current trends suggest that spots of 1+
inch/hr rain rates should continue to materialize for at least
another 2-4 hours or so as the complex migrates eastward.

The greatest concern for isolated flash flood potential exists as
storms traverse central and eastern Wisconsin (generally from Eau
Claire eastward to Green Bay).  Although some uncertainty exists
with respect to eastward extent of the complex, these areas
currently have the lowest FFG thresholds (around 1-1.5 inch/hr)
and the greatest chance for those thresholds being exceeded on an
isolated basis.  Destabilization is slow to occur across
northeastern Wisconsin, and it appears that the northern portions
of the complex may undergo weakening (and lessening flash flood
potential) especially north of Wisconsin State Highway 29.  Higher
FFGs (~2-3 inch/hr) across southwestern Wisconsin suggests an even
more isolated/spotty flash flood threat in these areas through 06Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-6pxxOuPDNmnuczRq9vF8kKf0HxEX8mf7fyFMMSbjx1AWbT5NzMErSoFi3UQQaV-X_tX=
fbs6uO7CWdeAV2lsbdXeAxg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45719138 45688932 44898840 43308833 42608942=20
            42269136 42669271 43779286 44929248=20

=3D =3D =3D
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