Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Aug 30 2024 00:48:50 ACUS01 KWNS 300048 SWODY1 SPC AC 300047 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, a few severe, will spread across the Upper Midwest this evening. Some risk for isolated wind/hail persists through about 04-05z. ....01z Update... Strong, well-defined upper low is lifting northeast across southern MB early this evening. Trailing trough extends across the eastern Dakotas with the southern most portion affecting western KS. This feature is largely responsible for an elongated band of convection across the Upper Midwest, arcing ahead of a synoptic front into the central Plains. The most organized portion of this linear MCS is advancing across western WI/southeast MN/IA. LLJ will shift east across IA/WI this evening, suggesting this activity will remain organized for several hours. Most supercell structures have been disorganized along the line, and damaging winds will likely be the primary severe threat, as large hail has been mostly absent with this convection. Scattered-numerous thunderstorm clusters persist across the Middle Atlantic region this evening. 00z soundings from this region exhibit modest lapse rates, but seasonally high PW values. Wind profiles are marginally supportive of organized updrafts so this activity has likely peaked in intensity. Aside from an isolated damaging wind/hail report, the overall severe threat should gradually diminish over the next few hours. ...Darrow.. 08/30/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .