Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 29 2024 19:57:33

AWUS01 KWNH 291957
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-300156-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0946
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Areas affected...portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and far
northern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291956Z - 300156Z

Summary...Flash flood potential is expected to increase over the
next 4-6 hours as thunderstorms train/repeat over sensitive areas.
 Areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates can be expected in/near
training/merging cells.

Discussion...Rain rates have increased markedly over the past half
hour or so along an axis from just west of Saint Cloud, MN to near
Sioux City, IA.  The storms causing these rain rates have
increased in intensity relatively recently, with pronounced
training noted via radar mosaic imagery especially across
southwestern/south-central Minnesota.  Despite appreciate storm
motions due to seasonably strong flow aloft, training cells amid
1.5-1.8 inch PW values and 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE were promoting
strong, efficient updrafts with areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates.
 These rates were migrating northeastward toward areas of locally
sensitive ground conditions (especially around Minneapolis), with
0.75-1.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds noted from central Minnesota into
western Wisconsin (and higher thresholds noted elsewhere).

Over time, quickly expanding/intensifying convection should result
in scattered forward-propagating linear segments.  Occasional
areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are expected as storms move
northeastward.  Localized training/cell mergers should result in
at least a few instances of FFG  exceedance and heightened flash
flood potential through 02Z this evening.  In the Minneapolis/St.
Paul metro area, this risk should maximize around the 21-2230Z
(4-530p CDT) timeframe.  Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible in this regime - especially from central
Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9m9QmhVEAH0iTLxfTp2h3h-0jzIkRiL-DMb-XDPVoJ30O3900n4IL8OLlqS9Gg5lEYcC=
JR_PCvXgLj7WFTblUUaWZl0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...FSD...GRB...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   46249334 46199165 45599023 44759021 43829058=20
            43209163 42879420 42829611 43929576 44569576=20
            45439537=20

=3D =3D =3D
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