Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 29 2024 19:31:15

ACUS03 KWNS 291931
SWODY3
SPC AC 291930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the
northeast/central Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley area Saturday.

....Synopsis...
A relatively deep upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place
from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes and Northeast on Saturday.
Within the large-scale trough, a weak shortwave may move through
parts of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley, while a stronger
upstream shortwave will move toward the upper Great Lakes region. A
cold front is expected to move eastward across parts of the
Northeast and Ohio Valley. A stronger cold front will move through
parts of the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes, in association
with the southeastward-moving shortwave trough.

....Parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop Saturday along/ahead
of the front across parts of NY/PA into the upper Ohio Valley
region. There will be some displacement of stronger flow/shear to
the north with stronger instability to the south, but the
environment will likely become at least marginally supportive of
organized convection across the region during the afternoon. A few
stronger cells and/or small clusters may evolve with time and pose a
threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps some isolated hail.

....Upper Great Lakes vicinity...
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the extent of
destabilization near the strong front that is forecast to move
southeastward across the upper Great Lakes region. However,
favorable ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may aid in at
least isolated convective development along the front during the
afternoon/evening. Strengthening low/midlevel flow could support
some severe threat with any deeper convection, though this potential
remains uncertain and will be dependent on the magnitude of
prefrontal destabilization.

...Dean.. 08/29/2024

$$

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