Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 29 2024 18:46:03 AWUS01 KWNH 291845 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300043- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0945 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 244 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern NM...OK/TX Panhandles Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 291843Z - 300043Z SUMMARY...Gradually developing areas of showers and thunderstorms going through the afternoon hours will pose a threat for at least isolated areas of flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows areas of convective initiation gradually taking place across areas of central and eastern NM, along with the OK/TX Panhandles. Strong diurnal heating has allowed for MLCAPE values to increase to as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg and this coupled with proximity of a broader mid-level circulation and some remnant MCV activity over central and eastern NM should favor an additional increase in the coverage of convection over the next several hours which will include the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and the Sacramento Mountains. Farther east closer to the TX/NM border, there is proximity of a stronger low-level trough and this coupled with the increase in moisture convergence/instability across this region should favor a further expansion of convection going through the late afternoon hours that will advance out into the OK/TX Panhandles. PWs are still locally on the order of 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal with the remaining entrenchment of monsoonal moisture, and this moisture coupled with the pooling of instability will support convection capable of producing rainfall rates of up to 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger storms that evolve going through the afternoon hours. Some of the storms closer to the higher terrain may tend to be locally more focused, and this will be capable of resulting in some rainfall totals reaching 2 to 3 inches. Locally similar totals will also be possible across portions of the TX Panhandle where locally slow cell-motions are expected. The 12Z HREF guidance is generally supportive of these rainfall totals. The overall flash flood threat should be rather isolated, but there will be concerns locally to the sensitive burn scar locations in particular across areas of central to northeast NM. Impacts that evolve over the OK/TX Panhandles should be highly isolated, but may tend to involve some urban sensitivities. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8O6wLy6NjNn-d6I5anhyOFdfT5nxqqMSrRt5GgcVNPzC7AO_j1kTpGnpV5jnFVL9xhQK= KA2JF3bXsjUoxqnx7SIn56I$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37280289 36910183 35960140 33700193 32550285=20 32140380 32230528 32880584 33890597 34500589=20 35660592 36730540 37210448=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .