Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 29 2024 17:31:45 ACUS02 KWNS 291731 SWODY2 SPC AC 291729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... ....SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across eastern lower Michigan on Friday, with more isolated strong/severe storms into parts of the Midwest, and also across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia into northeast Georgia. ....Synopsis... The southern portion of an relatively deep upper-level trough will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Friday, with the strongest part of this trough and related mid/upper-level flow expected to remain north of the international border. A cold front trailing from a deep surface low near Hudson Bay will move across parts of the Great Lakes, Midwest, mid/upper MS Valley, and south-central Great Plains. ....Parts of lower MI and OH into IN/IL/MO... Diurnal heating and relatively rich moisture will support moderate to locally strong destabilization along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across a broad region from lower MI and OH into the Midwest and parts of the Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be generally displaced to the north of the front, though modest west/southwesterly flow could support isolated strong storms capable of locally damaging gusts and possibly hail. Within the broader region of isolated severe potential, a somewhat more favorable environment will be possible in the vicinity of eastern lower MI, where relatively greater low/midlevel flow (generally 20-30 kt at 850 mb and 30-40 kt at 700 mb) is forecast within the prefrontal environment. A few more-organized clusters or line segments appear possible in this area, with an attendant damaging-wind threat. A 15% wind area has been added where confidence is currently highest in the overlap of greater storm coverage and somewhat stronger flow. ....NC/VA into the southern ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon across much NC and southern VA into the southern Blue Ridge vicinity, within a moist and unstable environment. Development will tend to be focused near the sea breeze, any remnant outflow boundary from D1/Thursday convection, and across the higher terrain. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak, which will tend to limit storm organization. However, the favorable thermodynamic profile will support a threat of locally damaging outflow winds. ...Dean.. 08/29/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .