Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 29 2024 09:02:13 ACUS48 KWNS 290902 SWOD48 SPC AC 290900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ....DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models are in reasonably good agreement with respect to synoptic-scale features across the U.S. through about Day 6/Tuesday. Late in the period, models begin deviating with respect to their handling of an upper low, which through the first half of the period is progged to be moving in a slow, anticyclonic arc around northern fringes of a western and central U.S. ridge. As this feature crests the ridge, moving across the northern Intermountain region Day 7/Wednesday, model solutions begin to diverge with respect to progression of the system, with divergence continuing through Day8. Therefore, while some severe risk may accompany the advance of this feature toward/into the north-central U.S. late in the period, uncertainty precludes any further assessment of this potential. Meanwhile early in the period, an upper trough will shift across the northeastern quarter of the country Day 4/Sunday. An associated cold front is progged to advance across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region, but with preceding low-level moisture likely already swept off the New England Coast by a prior frontal passage. As such, it appears that only a limited potential for stronger storms will exist along trailing portions of the front farther south (from the Mid-Atlantic vicinity westward into the Tennessee Valley area) with stronger flow aloft remaining farther to the north. Days 5-6 and beyond, the front will continue sagging southward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast States, as a Canadian surface high settles southeastward into the Plains/Great Lakes/Midwest. While convection can be expected near and south of this boundary, stronger flow aloft will remain well north of this region, thus precluding organized severe potential. ...Goss.. 08/29/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .