Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 29 2024 00:46:10

ACUS01 KWNS 290046
SWODY1
SPC AC 290044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm threat continues across parts of the Dakotas
this evening.

....01z Update...

Strong mid-level short-wave trough is well evident in satellite
imagery, extending from the AB/SK border, south into eastern ID.
This feature will shift into eastern MT/WY by the end of the period
as a 70kt+ 500mb speed max translates across western ND into
southwest MB. Scattered supercells have developed ahead of this
short wave from near Minot ND to just north of Mobridge SD. Latest
model guidance suggests a weak surface low, or at least a wave, will
track northeast along the surface front into southeast ND by 29/12z.
Over the next few hours, LLJ will increase across the eastern
Dakotas and this should encourage eastward propagation of convection
within a concentrated zone of low-level warm advection. Latest
diagnostic data suggests ongoing storms are rooted within the main
corridor of instability, and peak updraft intensity may linger
through 03-04z before a more hostile environment is encountered
downstream. Very large hail may be noted for the next hour or two,
along with some risk for a tornado, then hail/wind threat will
linger into the late-evening hours.

...Darrow.. 08/29/2024

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.