Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 29 2024 00:32:48

AWUS01 KWNH 290032
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-290429-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0941
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024

Areas affected...portions of Arizona and New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290029Z - 290429Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues, although a
gradual wane of convective coverage/intensity is expected through
04Z.

Discussion...Areas/spots of flash flooding remain possible
currently.  00Z radar mosaic imagery depicts several areas of
concentrated showers and thunderstorms in higher terrain north of
Phoenix, AZ and across mainly rural areas of northwestern,
central, and northeastern New Mexico.  The convection was rotating
around a weak upper low centered near the AZ/NM border.  The
combination of this low, orographic lift, and modest surface
heating/instability continues to support a few areas of 0.5-1.0
inch/hr rain rates.  Meanwhile, locally sensitive areas/burn scars
across the discussion area (especially in New Mexico) continue to
pose flash flood potential given the aforementioned scenario.=20
Near sensitive areas, only little rainfall is needed to cause
issues with excessive runoff.

Flash flood potential should continue through 04Z or so.  Models
depict a gradual decrease in instability/rainfall rates over time
in concert with a loss of surface heating.  Flash flood potential
should begin to lessen - especially after sunset.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4n56Wtvn9z_Gpkg2hnTKAB_uYpJeSpN9-QKqw3ZR5vY12N-oap1hB2HgAGELtGJ_sx10=
8FJPIBgCjbScqaMMxM5xW3A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36890376 35620330 33790405 32650559 32440719=20
            32571020 33271247 34721249 36001164 36830908=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.