Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 28 2024 17:37:09 AWUS01 KWNH 281736 FFGMPD TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-282335- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0939 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 135 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Much of Central and Western NM Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 281735Z - 282335Z SUMMARY...Monsoonal moisture entrenched across eastern AZ through much of central and western NM will foster pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms later today. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible, and especially for the more sensitive burn scar locations and arroyos. DISCUSSION...The late-morning GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows multiple MCVs situated across southeast AZ through central NM which are embedded within a broader mid-level shortwave circulation that is seen drifting north-northeastward across the region. There is plenty of monsoonal moisture once again entrenched across the region as evidenced by the NESDIS Blended TPW and CIRA-ALPW data sets, with the moisture somewhat concentrated in the mid and upper-level parts of the vertical column. A rather substantial amount of morning cloud cover will temper the build-up of surface-based instability in the short-term, but gradually there will be a sufficient level of diurnal heating and increasing instability for a renewed round of convective initiation going into the afternoon hours. This will be further supported by the remnant MCV activity over the region along with multiple differential heating boundaries and orographics with localized upslope flow helping to focus convective development. The PWs across the region are on the order of 1.5+ standard deviations above normal, and with the build-up of instability over the next several hours, the areas of showers and thunderstorms that initiate will be capable of heavy rainfall rates that may reach 1 to 2 inches/hour. A look at the 12Z HREF guidance suggests at least localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier amounts by later this afternoon. Areas of southeast AZ and western NM are generally favored for the heavier rainfall amounts today, but areas farther east into portions of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains and the Sacramento Mountains will tend to have somewhat more favorable orographics and may have locally similar rainfall totals. Given proximity of multiple sensitive burn scar locations and the areal arroyos, there may be instances of flash flooding later today from these pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-e8oHsLGqeBR4QNnNehFodSZNTCoTFL2diOwtFrVv7YWvcUZfNO0iq2bIBPNiPb9j2RI= DEE2yCHtd2Vj4vF50W_TjrE$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...PUB...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36990549 36460470 35190435 33910441 33390444=20 32660446 31860490 31590700 31290837 31290955=20 31311027 31661101 32431189 33591219 34511278=20 35251266 35771209 35991086 36040974 36210888=20 36590782 36920682=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .