Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 28 2024 17:31:34 ACUS02 KWNS 281731 SWODY2 SPC AC 281729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA...WESTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday from portions of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley to the central Plains. A few severe storms also will be possible over portions of the mid-Atlantic region. ....Synopsis... A weak upper-level short-wave trough will shift east across the Northeast on Thursday, as a much stronger trough/low will continue to advance into/across the north-central states. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to sag southward across the Mid-Atlantic region in lee of the Appalachians, while a more prominent cold front shifts eastward/southeastward across the central and northern Plains. ....Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley area to the central Plains... Large scale ascent with the upper low/trough will increase in the vicinity of the eastward-advancing cold front over MN/northern IA, augmented by the right-entrance region of a 250-mb jet lifting north during the day. Substantial instability should be in place by afternoon, with afternoon MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg expected. Strengthening mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough will contribute to deep-layer shear of 35-45 kts, supporting organized storms including the potential for supercell structures. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the afternoon and evening, becoming more linear with time along the cold front. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe hazards, with the severe risk continuing into the evening hours. Some tornado risk may also develop with embedded QLCS circulations as low-level shear appears supportive, especially within the Slight Risk area. Both instability and shear will diminish with southward extent across eastern NE/northern KS, however afternoon thunderstorm development is expected along the front within a largely uncapped environment. Isolated damaging winds will be the primary risk as strong boundary-layer heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, and storms begin to cluster during the late afternoon/evening. Instances of large hail will also be possible. ....Mid-Atlantic Region... A southward-moving cold front will move across the mid-Atlantic in the lee of the Appalachians Thursday within a moderately unstable though weakly sheared environment. With minimal afternoon CINH, thunderstorms should develop over the higher terrain and along the front and tend to cluster with time. This will result in a risk for damaging gusts, and perhaps hail with the stronger updrafts. ...Bunting.. 08/28/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .