Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 28 2024 00:49:59

AWUS01 KWNH 280049
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0937
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas & Western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280048Z - 280500Z

SUMMARY...Nearly stationary storms along a boundary draped near
the Kansas/Missouri border are producing local rainfall rates to
2.5 inches per hour. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION... Nearly stationary storms occurring over the western
suburbs of Kansas City, including near Olathe are producing
rainfall rates to 2.5 inches per hour. Radar-estimated storm total
rainfall is already exceeding 4 inches in some areas. Despite
recent dry weather, these high rainfall totals may cause localized
flash flooding, especially in any urbanized areas. SPC
Mesoanalysis shows PWATs to 2.1 inches over Kansas City and MUCAPE
values to 3,000 J/kg across this region. This should be plenty of
moisture and instability to sustain continued thunderstorm
development over the next few hours. The storms have been very
slowly backbuilding south and west with time, though new
development north of Kansas City should result in heavy rainfall
moving into St. Joseph over the next hour.

CAMs guidance remains very poor as to how this convection is
expected to evolve over the next several hours. The 23Z HRRR
suggests the storms will backtrack to the northeast into Kansas
City, though the recent evolution on radar does not support that
solution as of yet. With new development occurring to the north of
Kansas City...around and west of St. Joseph, expect the greatest
flash flooding threat to evolve northward with time as well.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_ykn-f69nw5d_PLeOrqBwj8MQOD9eZm8uSy2sHK6tJ2SNklh2fwCcMyZxp1P95ayEsh1=
SsmFmkmUlMwpkZgCHWAkCC4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40509582 40439457 40079436 38779396 38199432=20
            38199482 38739547 39139598 39529663 39969659=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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