Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 27 2024 23:38:29

AWUS01 KWNH 272338
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-280537-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0936
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Areas affected...New Mexico & Southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272337Z - 280537Z

SUMMARY...Monsoonal moisture continues to stream northeastward out
of the Gulf of California across portions of the Southwest. High
moisture and instability are supporting numerous thunderstorms
capable of flash flooding when interacting with urban areas and
burn scars.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon thunderstorms associated with the monsoon
continue to form across much of New Mexico and southeastern
Arizona. Any storms that form near urban areas such as
Albuquerque, El Paso, and Tucson will be capable of flash
flooding. Further any storms impacting burn scars such as those
west of Albuquerque, near Ruidoso, NM, or elsewhere will also have
a higher potential of producing locally hazardous flash flooding.

PWATs to 1.4 inches and SBCAPE values to 3,500 J/kg were noted in
SPC mesoanalysis in southwestern New Mexico, with broad values
between 1-1.25 inches PWAT and SBCAPE values above 2,000 J/kg were
observed over much of southern Arizona and New Mexico this
afternoon. These remain plenty unstable and moist enough to
support continued thunderstorm activity into the evening.

Storm coverage and intensity should gradually wane with
diminishing daylight this evening, though several CAMs keep
activity near the AZ/NM border ongoing well into the overnight
hours, albeit in a much weaker form.

Wegman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_1WvvMX01AAXLgTr6-Cn7XevR04l_Qp5BVOQBB3v1EyD2uIeY2QTdq7Ge4RobeX6PXE8=
acuLriypHLVA3YReZ8HXX_c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37410538 37340396 36600255 35630235 34460332=20
            34200347 32760405 31240543 31500645 31261067=20
            31581162 32811140 34461030 36340756=20

=3D =3D =3D
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