Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 27 2024 16:44:55

ACUS01 KWNS 271644
SWODY1
SPC AC 271642

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging thunderstorm winds and
occasional large hail are possible across the Great Lakes region and
portions of the Midwest through tonight.

....Great Lakes/Midwest/Central Plains...
A rather complex mesoscale scenario exists particularly across the
Great Lakes region, influenced by multiple MCSs/outflows since last
evening. Multiple MCVs are apparent across the region including
western Upper Michigan, potentially including an MCV with evolving
asymmetric quasi-linear convection across east-central Wisconsin
late this morning. Within a zone of pre-frontal confluence/augmented
outflow, MCS persistence and further upscale/southward peripheral
growth is possible into Lower Michigan/northern Illinois into a very
unstable air mass, but this is far from certain. For additional
short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 2013.

Where storm clusters do develop and intensify regionally, ample
buoyancy, particularly south of the aforementioned late-morning MCS,
and sufficient deep-layer shear will support damaging wind and
isolated large hail potential. The severe threat could reach as far
as the Lake Ontario vicinity late tonight/early Wednesday.

Farther southwest, nearer to the cold front and potentially
augmented by residual outflow, CAPE and especially vertical shear
will be weaker from southeast Iowa/western Illinois into northern
Missouri and eastern Kansas/southeast Nebraska. A few organized
multicells are possible atop a strongly heated boundary layer, with
strong wind gusts and severe hail possible.

...Guyer/Wendt.. 08/27/2024

$$

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