Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 27 2024 09:04:20 ACUS48 KWNS 270904 SWOD48 SPC AC 270902 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ....DISCUSSION... Latest runs of the global models suggest that the general pattern evolution over the U.S. through the medium range will be characterized by a slowly progressive upper flow field, trending toward amplification of troughing over the eastern U.S. and ridging over the West. Late in the period, as the pattern continues to progress, a Pacific trough is progged to approach and then move into the western states, while the western U.S. ridge shifts gradually toward the central states. Still farther upstream, the eastern U.S. trough will likewise continue shifting eastward, into/across New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Through the first half of the period, as the upper trough moves across the Great Lakes region and adjacent Ontario and is then reinforced by a second feature digging southeastward out of Canada, a series of surface cold fronts will shift eastward/southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS. On Day 4/Friday, at least some severe threat will likely evolve over the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, ahead of the initial cold front. By Day 5/Saturday, convection -- and possibly limited severe risk -- may spread across the Lower Lakes and Ohio Valley area. A continued, eastward shift should persist through Day6/Sunday, as the next front accelerates eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, with most substantial strong convective potential evolving from New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. Overall however, with low-level moisture begin suppressed gradually southward by Canadian frontal intrusions, and the surface baroclinic zone settling south of the stronger flow aloft, overall risk should remain limited, and gradually decreasing through the period. As such, no risk areas are being included in the medium-range outlook at this time. ...Goss.. 08/27/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .