Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 27 2024 06:05:45

AWUS01 KWNH 270605
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-271015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0933
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Areas affected...northeastern WI into U.P. of MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270604Z - 271015Z

SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood threat will exist from northern
WI into the U.P. of MI through 10Z. 1-2 in/hr rates and spotty 2-3
inch totals will be possible.

DISCUSSION...0545Z radar showed the leading edge of a forward
propagating MCS moving into the west-central U.P. of MI and
northeastern WI. Average motion over the past 3 hours has been ~40
kt toward the east and rainfall rates with the leading line have
generally been 1 in/hr or less. However, localized convective
development in advance of the line across the western U.P. into
northern WI has resulted in MRMS-derived rainfall rates between
1-2 in/hr. Cloud top temperatures on GOES East infrared imagery
have warmed sine 03Z some but are maintaining occasional bursts
below -70 C with relatively weakly inhibited MLCAPE of 1500-2500
J/kg via the 05Z SPC mesoanalysis remaining just ahead of the
line.

05Z surface observations showed a remnant lake breeze boundary
over northern portions of the U.P. which appears to be acting as a
focus for new development. Additional convective development was
also noted just ahead of the main convective arc near the WI/MI
border. While the MCS is expected to maintain an eastward motion
with continued gradual weakening, the strongest updrafts may
maintain near the northern bookend vortex with additional upstream
development prior to the main convective line moving through. The
result will be localized hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and perhaps
spotty 2-3 inch totals through 10Z. These values could result in
localized flash flooding across the region if they fall over urban
or otherwise sensitive locations.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7euAHihra2ROGiss77i3p4Uil2_nNDFEH0I0nxjn-Clo2STS7u2jrSTHmATDCUVs23ZR=
rMx0_Di04xe1itAzCZiVQSY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRB...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47738767 47048690 47018539 46838500 46218541=20
            45888612 45528734 45458848 46068878 46339002=20
            47078989=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.