Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 27 2024 00:57:44

ACUS01 KWNS 270057
SWODY1
SPC AC 270056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or
two, remain possible tonight across parts of South Dakota, northern
Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin.

....01z Update...

Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms
remain. Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough
located over eastern WY, shifting east in line with latest model
guidance. Leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be
contributing to a linear MCS that currently extends from
Ziebach-Bennett County SD. This LEWP is surging east along the cool
side of a pronounced synoptic front that is draped from southern
MN-northern NE. LLJ is forecast to increase into southeast SD later
this evening and this should encourage forward propagation after
sunset. Isolated storms may linger along the actual wind shift
across northeast NE into northwest IA, but the primary concentration
of convection should remain along the cool side of the boundary.

Downstream, an MCS has matured over eastern MN. This complex is
surging toward the MS River and will advance into western WI shortly
after 01z. A reservoir of highly unstable air extends across the
warm sector from northern IA into central WI, and this should
support robust updrafts within a mature MCS as it spreads east this
evening. Damaging winds can be expected with this complex.

...Darrow.. 08/27/2024

$$

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