Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2003
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 26 2024 22:29:07

ACUS11 KWNS 262229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262228=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE into northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262228Z - 270000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe wind/hail threat is possible
into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in storm intensity has been noted over
the last hour over far southwest NE, in the vicinity of a weak
surface boundary. In the immediate vicinity of the boundary, MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will support
organized convection, with a threat of isolated hail and localized
strong/severe gusts.=20

The evolution of this convection into the early evening remains
somewhat uncertain. While some MLCINH is present into parts of
west-central NE, there is potential for ongoing convection to spread
northeastward with time, especially if stronger outflow can become
established. Should this occur, some threat for strong/severe gusts
and hail could persist into the evening.=20

Isolated storm development also remains possible along an
outflow-reinforced front that has sagged into north-central NE, to
the south of WW 650. Favorable instability and deep-layer shear will
support a conditional severe hail/wind risk with any development in
this area.=20

Observational trends will be monitored regarding the need for watch
issuance across this region.

...Dean/Gleason.. 08/26/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Q3-nillgPyBI_ZqQ3Er23tyrOQVPnFHVRdOfgu9sGm4oQFNiDUDmd8ftPKCjJ1RCQ6HoGCsf=
eEqJmuRQxKmQv6cFUA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39770180 41170125 41840101 41899944 41029920 40359943
            39969978 39760049 39770180=20


=3D =3D =3D
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