Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 26 2024 20:53:09 AWUS01 KWNH 262053 FFGMPD OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-270230- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0931 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 452 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...Southeast AZ...Much of Central NM...Southeast CO... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 262050Z - 270230Z SUMMARY...Scattered incidents of flash flooding exist in confluence zone between approaching mid-latitude trough and strong Southern Plains ridge. Repeating cells with narrow updrafts and rates up to 1"/hr result in spotty 1-2" totals through evening.=20 DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW and GOES-E WV suite shows a compact shortwave and associated convergence moisture pocket across the Mexico/AZ/NM border with a narrow band of moisture streaming northeastward across NM into south-central CO and into the central High Plains along/ahead of long-wave trough lifting northeastward out of the central Rockies into the northern High Plains. With the majority of energy lifting north, the right entrance region of the polar jet remains expanded an broad across N NM into the central High Plains as the core of the upper jet is now further downstream. This has allowed the influence of the ridge and return flow/moisture off the Gulf to stream across the Pecos River Valley and Permian Basin into S NM. Enhanced upslope flow across the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento range can be seen by waves within the cu field pressing east and deepening into stronger convection across the ranges at the interface of the best divergence aloft and convergence in the low levels.=20 While the dynamic environment remains very impressive, the overall deep layer moisture is at average values here at the tail end of the monsoon season, but the 850-700mb moisture values are increasing and starting to support overall values toward the 1-1.25" and should allow for some vertical convergence for solid rainfall rates, perhaps up to as much as 1" in an hour. Much of the convergence aligns with the terrain and naturally lower FFG, especially at the 1-3hr range. Deep layer steering along the deformation zone/shear axis from the shortwave into the central plains will support potential for training/repeating elements as long as weak dry air mixing doesn't build cold pools resulting in creater easterly propagation into the upslope flow. As such, typical scattered incidents of 1-2" totals in 1-3 hours and will be "average" in magnitude and below average relative to earlier this season; however, scattered incidents of flash flooding will remain possible given this favorable environmental setup. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-08TtdW-2vecDP1jHW0FDegYZXvPYC8nMeEymOTye_BxE09TU3P6c2sbMHwQUeFzwqPv= sdIOsMbEGFDzn3hBRhIUjps$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...PUB...TWC... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38480284 38140239 37010298 35920347 34900407=20 34130464 33030526 32590561 32640600 32920641=20 32790691 32680759 32080836 32370907 32411025=20 33021026 34240900 35620722 36630580 37980422=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .