Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 26 2024 19:30:05 ACUS03 KWNS 261930 SWODY3 SPC AC 261928 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ....Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ....Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ....Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ...Bunting.. 08/26/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .