Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Aug 25 2024 09:00:48

ACUS48 KWNS 250900
SWOD48
SPC AC 250859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Potential for severe weather may spread across parts of the
Northeast/New England Day 4/Wednesday.  However non-trivial
uncertainty is evident -- regarding both details with respect to how
the short-wave trough crossing Ontario interacts with the more
pronounced trough shifting eastward across Quebec into the Canadian
Maritimes, as well as evolution/progression of ongoing Day-3
convection.  Therefore, despite potential for severe weather that is
evident in a broad/general sense, no areas will be highlighted at
this time.

Upstream, models forecast the advance of an upper low across the
Canadian Prairie, with troughing south of the low to cross the
northern Intermountain Region and eventually reach the northern
Plains.  As this system advances, a cold front is progged to move
into/across the Dakotas and western Nebraska diurnally.  Amply
strong flow should accompany this trough, along with the likelihood
for sufficient warm-sector destabilization to support storm
development.  This suggests some potential for severe weather across
portions of the northern Plains, but -- similar to the potential for
severe weather over the Northeast -- will refrain from any areal
highlights at this time.

Beyond Day 4/Wednesday, model differences steadily increase with
respect to the large-scale features, and thus will refrain from
attempts to assess risk through the remainder of the medium-range
period.

...Goss.. 08/25/2024

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