Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Aug 25 2024 01:02:14 ACUS01 KWNS 250102 SWODY1 SPC AC 250100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MT... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of northeast Montana, and for a few hours this evening from the central High Plains into the Four Corners region. ....Northeast MT vicinity... An isolated supercell or two remains possible through mid evening across extreme northeast MT into far northwest ND, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted in the 00Z GGW sounding). Later tonight, some guidance (most notably recent HRRR runs) suggests potential for an elevated storm cluster to develop and move across northeast MT and potentially extreme northwest ND. High-based convection currently developing across east-central MT lends some credence to this scenario, though uncertainty remains. Should this occur, MUCAPE and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms with hail and severe-gust potential, before the cluster moves into SK. A Slight Risk has been added for the conditional potential for hail and strong to severe gusts later tonight. ....Four Corners into the central High Plains... Multiple clusters of generally disorganized convection are ongoing early this evening from northern NM into parts of CO. Localized strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region for a few hours this evening, before convection generally weakens. Some intensification cannot be ruled out where stronger instability is in place from northeast CO into western NE, though MLCINH should become increasingly prohibitive with time. ....Southern KS into western OK...northwest TX...OK/TX Panhandles... Isolated high-based storms may continue to pose a short-term threat of localized downbursts from northwest TX/western OK into the TX/OK Panhandles and southern KS. However, storms should continue to be disorganized, and tend to diminish quickly with time this evening. ...Dean.. 08/25/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .