Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1985
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 24 2024 21:01:15

ACUS11 KWNS 242101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242100=20
MTZ000-242330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242100Z - 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may begin to initiate, with the
evolution of an isolated supercell possible, by 4-5 PM MDT.  This
may pose a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and
perhaps some potential for a brief tornado.

DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence appears to be locally
strengthening within weak surface troughing near the Wolf Point
vicinity, where surface dew points remain in the lower/mid 60s F, as
temperatures warm into the 90s F.  Inhibition is gradually eroding
with continuing insolation, and this may be aided by weak mid-level
cooling through late afternoon, downstream of a mid-level
perturbation progressing across and northeast of the Canadian
Rockies.

Initial attempts at deepening convective development appear slowly
underway, in the presence of thermodynamic profiles already
characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and CAPE
in excess of 2000 J/kg.  Beneath 35-60+ kt south-southwesterly flow
in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear is already strong and
conditionally supportive of supercells.

Although the strength of mid/upper forcing for ascent remains a bit
unclear, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh and Rapid Refresh, in
particular, suggest that at least isolated thunderstorms may
initiate as early as 22-23Z.  Once this occurs, intensification may
be fairly rapid, with storms becoming capable of producing large
hail, locally damaging gusts gusts, and perhaps some risk for a
brief tornado, despite generally small/linear low-level hodographs.

...Kerr/Guyer.. 08/24/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6e1Y-ahX18JJy0b7yuHnVWi8gLNEsgyzhDL5E0XxKIz7_zAnu_gjdfS7OvxwntwBB4KJYlr_B=
3ZkNolfBsReyetgGSI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...

LAT...LON   49550459 48250422 47870592 48790686 49660673 49550459=20


=3D =3D =3D
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