Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 24 2024 20:55:03

AWUS01 KWNH 242054
FFGMPD
NMZ000-250200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0926
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
454 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Areas affected...Northwest New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242055Z - 250200Z

SUMMARY...Favorable orientation and above average moisture pose
spots of 1-1.5" in short duration resulting in possible incidents
of localized flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES W/E WV composite suite shows a narrowing
corridor between a strengthening/digging northern stream over
northern California into the Great Basin, and the western edge of
the south-central upper-level ridge.  This corridor is aligned
across the AZ/NM border before angling into southern Colorado with
increasing unidirectional flow though a sizable depth of the
middle to upper troposphere.  CIRA LPW denotes this very well with
an enhanced moisture plume with extending out of the Sea of Cortez
in most of the layers centered across SE AZ into northwest NM.=20
Morning cloud cover highlighted the enhanced moisture, resulting
in some heating discontinuity with the best moisture, as clearer
skies heated much of the eastern periphery of the deeper moisture,
instability grew, but not sizable with respect to monsoonal
averages this season.  Still, SBCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg were noted
over higher terrain of west central NM and slightly increased
850-700mb confluent flow along/downstream of a remaining
MCV/mid-level shortwave over SW AZ; has been sufficient to break
out a fairly numerous cluster of thunderstorms across Catron,
Cibola into S McKinley county.

Modest low level moisture is seeing some mid-level influx from the
westerly moisture plume but loading is likely limiting the
potential for rates about .5"/hr. Proximity to cyclonically
curved, right enhance jet ascent pattern, should allow for solid
divergence/outflow for cells to mature across NW NM. However, the
key over the next few hours will the stronger, but more dense
clustering of updrafts within a favorable unidirectional flow
allow for repeating rounds of .5" (increasing to .75"/hr as low
level, inverted-V profile moistens) to allow for spotty 1-1.5"
totals resulting in possible incidents of localized flash
flooding.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_QMdz7vB4R9EI_AnyuO7QnyOwTb0Ycw5Y8yYMa2s5AUMROzFuZLOiCe5gF616g9fr73g=
M-hVAG3mF2yQqAv6biabjvk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36940806 36740650 35340664 33110707 32540774=20
            32810829 33810862 34730887 35510897 36250880=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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