Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 24 2024 17:16:12 ACUS02 KWNS 241716 SWODY2 SPC AC 241714 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ....Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ....Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ....Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ...Leitman.. 08/24/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .