Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Aug 24 2024 09:18:56

AWUS01 KWNH 240918
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-241515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0925
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Areas affected...western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240916Z - 241515Z

Summary...Convective development over western MO is expected to
lead to possible flash flooding later this morning. Training from
NNW to SSE should allow for 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates and localized
2 to 4+ inch totals.

Discussion...Radar imagery at 09Z showed a small cluster of
thunderstorms tracking east across northern KS. This activity has
been steadily moving across the state for the past few hours but
has increased in intensity over the past 1-2 hours as the low
level jet has increased in magnitude, represented by 850 mb winds
of 40-50 kt via recent area VAD wind plots over central KS. The
cluster of thunderstorms was located north of a quasi-stationary
front in place over southern KS and eastern OK, driven by low
level warm advection and coincident with a weak mid-level impulse
moving around the north side of a ridge centered over TX and OK.

850-300 mb mean layer winds, used as a proxy for cell motions,
were oriented from the WSW over northern KS. However, farther to
the east in MO were oriented more from the NNW. Over the next few
hours, 850 mb winds are forecast to weaken and veer through 12Z
over eastern KS into MO. These low level winds will act to
maintain low level moisture transport into eastern KS and western
MO, increasing CAPE into western MO while eroding low level
convective inhibition noted in point analysis soundings from the
RAP.

Thunderstorm development is expected to develop in the 11-13Z time
frame via recent rapidly updating forecast sounding guidance, over
western MO. Low level moisture feeding into the region from the
west and anticipated northwesterly cell motions are expected to
allow for training of cells. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are
likely to develop (40-70 percent probabilities for 1+ in/hr via
the 00Z HREF) with 2 to 4+ inch totals possible through 15Z.
Despite fairly dry antecedent conditions, 3-hr FFG values of 2.5
to 4 inches could be exceeded in one or two locations.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8_fHgvcDsodlkZmI_mJbmhroeZMuEdteAc0hd0GLVOE8DSmV0qm-fYNPOhahAtHzR0z-=
Al55zxFZBrxyNFtOUVynoLo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40519494 40169341 38749263 37429252 37089335=20
            37269395 37889435 38839465 39909515=20

=3D =3D =3D
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