Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Aug 24 2024 01:01:35 ACUS01 KWNS 240101 SWODY1 SPC AC 240100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL MT... ....SUMMARY... A threat for severe gusts will continue across parts of Montana through mid evening. Other strong to severe storms remain possible across eastern Utah and western Colorado, and also across the central High Plains. ....Montana... Scattered thunderstorms with a history of producing measured severe gusts are quickly moving northward across northwest MT early this evening, and will soon move across the international border. Farther east, a storm cluster across central MT may continue to pose a threat of severe gusts as it moves through a relatively warm and well-mixed environment. A separate cluster of storms across northeast MT may continue to pose a short-term threat of isolated hail and severe gusts, before increasing MLCINH reduces convective potential later tonight. ....Central High Plains into western MO... A small outflow-driven cluster of storms is moving across parts of the central High Plains early this evening. A short-term threat for isolated severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through mid evening, as the cluster moves through a moderately unstable and marginally sheared environment. Increasing MLCINH with time may eventually result in a weakening trend, though stronger elevated convection may persist through the night as the remnant cluster moves eastward. Some increase in elevated storms will also be possible near the end of the period across western MO, within a low-level warm-advection regime. Moderate MUCAPE could support a few stronger storms with small hail and gusty winds, but severe potential prior to 12Z within this regime appears relatively limited. ....Eastern UT into western CO... A couple stronger storms may persist through at least part of the evening from eastern UT into western CO, where MLCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear may support transient supercell structures capable of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. ...Dean.. 08/24/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .