Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1978
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 23 2024 20:14:34

ACUS11 KWNS 232014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232013=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-232215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Areas affected...portions of western and central Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 232013Z - 232215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over
the next few hours across western and central Montana. Isolated
damaging gust of 55-70 mph are possible, along with a few instances
of hail to near one inch diameter.

DISCUSSION...Gradual destabilization is occurring over the MCD area
as temperatures have warmed into the 80s F this afternoon.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain meager, but steep midlevel lapse
rates/cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE increasing to
around 500-1000 J/kg through early evening. Deepening cumulus is
noted over the mountains and thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage over the next couple of hours as stronger ascent
overspreads the region.=20

Favorable vertical shear will support organized updrafts/clusters,
while dry low-levels and very steep low-level lapse rates support
strong/severe gusts. Elongated/straight hodographs in conjunction
with favorable midlevel instability/shear will also support isolated
marginally severe hail with more intense/longer-lived updrafts.
While some MLCIN remains over the region, additional heating and
increasing ascent should gradually erode inhibition, but overall
poor vertical moisture profiles will limit instability.
Nevertheless, a severe thunderstorm watch may become necessary,
especially if convection across southwest MT/eastern ID sufficiently
organizes into forward propagating clusters with time as this
activity shifts north/northeast.

...Leitman/Guyer.. 08/23/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_amU2SKWrpH-wV5F1AT6AsNzm_5sVOnNe1YdiLdId1N2LhoohJQSnYhnoHn1ZZYOvRlT0wjoR=
DQ6sQ6iVRcKStFErD0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   47561510 48721479 48931407 49031285 48991101 48061016
            47261004 46551016 46311028 45981076 45781140 45591292
            45911393 46921475 47561510=20


=3D =3D =3D
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