Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Aug 23 2024 09:02:29

ACUS48 KWNS 230902
SWOD48
SPC AC 230901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Models continue to suggest potential for severe weather across parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley area Day4/Monday, as a mid-level
short-wave trough is shunted northeastward across this region by the
persistent central U.S. ridge.  Timing of the advance of this
feature differs between the GFS and ECMWF, casting some uncertainty,
but enough agreement exists to maintain a 15% probability area
across this region.

One other area of interest Day 4/Monday is across portions of the
southern New England/Mid-Atlantic vicinity within a northwesterly
flow regime on the southwestern side of New England/Canadian
Maritimes upper low.  Enhanced northwesterlies aloft would be
sufficient to produce rather fast-moving bands of storms, but degree
of instability remains a substantial question at this time.  With
intensity of the convection thus still uncertain, will refrain at
this time from introducing a risk area.

As the north-central U.S. mid-level feature moves into/across
Ontario Day 5, a decrease in severe risk is expected despite a weak
frontal advance southeastward across the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley.

Beyond Day 5, models begin to deviate substantially, particularly
with respect to their handling of the next trough expected to
progress eastward across the Canadian Prairie and
northwestern/north-central CONUS.  While some severe potential could
accompany this feature, particularly if an evolution that resembles
the stronger ECMWF solution plays out, uncertainty precludes any
reasonable assessment of severe potential.

...Goss.. 08/23/2024

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