Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 22 2024 19:36:52

ACUS01 KWNS 221936
SWODY1
SPC AC 221935

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over
parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening.

....20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based
on recent observations and trends in guidance. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.

...Moore.. 08/22/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024/

....CO/KS/NE...
Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of
eastern CO and western KS/NE.  Dewpoints in the 60s and steep
mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+
J/kg in this area.  Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form
over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward,
while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge.
As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few
severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and
large hail.

....AZ/UT...
A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today,
with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from
CO across the Great Basin.  Strong heating beneath this flow regime,
coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the
development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from
northwest AZ across western UT.  A few of the cells may produce
gusty/damaging winds and/or hail.

$$

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