Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Aug 22 2024 05:49:40

AWUS01 KWNH 220549
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-221145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0916
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024

Areas affected...far northeastern CO into southern NE and
northwestern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220545Z - 221145Z

Summary...A localized flash flood threat will continue across the
High Plains of far northeastern CO into NE/KS through 12Z. Brief
training from rainfall rates between 1-2 in/hr could result in
localized additional 2-3 inch totals.

Discussion...0520Z radar imagery showed an MCS tracking across
western NE and far northeastern CO with a general motion toward
the ESE. Reflectivity from MRMS identified a NE to SW oriented
line of thunderstorms about 100 miles long extending from the NE
Sandhills into far northeastern CO, with peak hourly rainfall
between 1-2 inches since 03Z. 850 mb winds measured from KGLD VAD
wind data showed 30-40 kt from the SSE, feeding moist and unstable
air into the ongoing complex.

A average motion toward the ESE at 20-25 kt is expected to
continue over the next few hours, moving through an unstable
environment represented by 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. 850 mb winds are
forecast by the RAP to weaken to below 30 kt by 12Z and weaken
even lower with eastern extend through KS/NE. The weakening low
level inflow into the MCS along with decreasing instability with
eastern extent should allow the flash flood threat to wane by
11Z-12Z. While a general forward progression should limit flash
flood potential, brief training of cells will be possible where
convective line orientation temporarily matches the deeper layer
steering flow, allowing for 1-2 inches of rain in an hour and
perhaps an additional 2-3 inches through 12Z. Localized flash
flooding will be possible as a result.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_TvLEspoGC99WvwqqXvpq-r1oFWpwZA-J5LPDqRiCRoQwjzIUN8s35GGPzlgtp-Co3RI=
lTd5e00KfvbgsC4g6QzEkIk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41240141 40980036 39839858 39209865 38989959=20
            39300129 39810248 40530287 41160239=20

=3D =3D =3D
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