Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Aug 22 2024 01:00:43 ACUS01 KWNS 220100 SWODY1 SPC AC 220059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ....Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ....Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ....Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ...Dean.. 08/22/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .