Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 21 2024 22:56:38

AWUS01 KWNH 212256
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-220454-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0914
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
656 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Areas affected...in and near western SD and western NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212254Z - 220454Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in
coverage in and near western SD and western NE over the next
several hours.  Hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts to 4"
are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding.

Discussion...A stationary front cuts across portions of NE, SD,
and WY, with a trailing dew point gradient/possible dry line
across southwest SD and southeast WY.  Precipitable water values
in this region are 0.75" in the High Plains and closer to 1.5"
closer to the 100th meridian.  Effective bulk shear is around 40
kts, sufficient for mesocyclones which have been forming on recent
radar imagery.  The mean wind flow is out of the south-southwest
at around 20 kts.  Ahead of the forming thunderstorms lies a broad
area of 500-4000 J/kg of ML CAPE, with highest values to the east.
 CIN is eroding per SPC mesoanalysis trends.

As thunderstorms move into the increasingly moist air mass, the
expectation is for them to broaden in scale and potentially form
into an MCS over the next several hours which will forward
propagate by 05z.  Hourly rain totals to 2" and local amounts to
4" are possible, which would be problematic in spots where weekly
rainfall has been above average across portions of SD and near the
eastern WY/CO border and within any urban areas.=20

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6j7LNk_cIFb2d0C8U2Ajskojs53CgEA4rb4yVnGX_0sAbEqaBJNNyafaTMCAO-CQJjKc=
qoroVzc6Ya5QRmZ2c6hghrM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BOU...BYZ...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45380169 44069995 42140033 40720166 40480388=20
            40570516 40710608 41770452 42880421 43750492=20
            44480516 45140430=20

=3D =3D =3D
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