Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Aug 21 2024 19:30:04

AWUS01 KWNH 211930
FFGMPD
COZ000-UTZ000-220128-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0913
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Areas affected...southwestern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211928Z - 220128Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with hourly rain totals to 2"
are possible where they get tried to terrain, cell mergers occur,
or periods of training occur.

Discussion...As earlier mid and high level clouds thin and move
downstream/eastward, showers and thunderstorms are forming across
southwest CO, within an area just south of a poleward migrating
anticyclonically curved jet streak.  Thunderstorm formation has
shown similar timing and location to what was advertised by the
12z HREF guidance.  Precipitation water values are 0.75-0.9" per
GPS data.  The flow at 700 hPa and the mean layer wind are out of
the west-southwest at 10-15 kts.  Effective bulk shear is up to 40
kts.  CIN is eroding; ML CAPE 500-1000 J/kg exists in this area.

The expectation is for an additional 500-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE to
develop due to daytime heating and for CIN to more fully erode.=20
Thunderstorms should attempt to organize, and given the winds
being fairly unidirectional with height out of the west-
southwest, cell training within the terrain is possible.=20
Mesocyclones are also possible given the degree of effective bulk
shear across the region.  As 700 hPa temperatures are 3C or so
cooler than yesterday, there should be broader convective coverage
and a higher risk of excessive rainfall than seen on Tuesday.=20
Cell mergers between activity at various levels of organization is
possible.  The ingredients support hourly rain totals to 2", which
would be most problematic in burns scars, any dry washes/arroyos,
or in any urban areas.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-rfzAi04GHzthLC9XIeaVlLViDGwdEYi-V8NtRHqClt6Jokid20ioat2N7XHG91lAmDn=
BYGSmkw2T-3zk5TJzwTCimQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39880649 39280508 37880419 37210477 37030676=20
            37370879 38420907 39410840=20

=3D =3D =3D
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