Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 21 2024 19:26:43 ACUS03 KWNS 211926 SWODY3 SPC AC 211925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the northern high Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ....Synopsis... On Friday, a prominent upper ridge will hold across the Plains with an upper trough over much of the West. A lead wave will pivot northeast out of the Great Basin and into MT, with a secondary lobe moving into northern CA into Saturday morning. At the surface, a cold front will push east across ID and NV during the day, with strengthening southerly winds ahead of it. Southeast winds will persist across much of the Plains with a surface trough also extending from central MT into the northern and central High Plains. A low level jet will develop from eastern MT into the western Dakotas in response to the lead wave. ....UT/Western CO and southwest WY... Midlevel winds will increase to over 50 kt as the upper trough nears during the afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, PWAT over 1.25" and heating will yield over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, while deep-layer shear increases to over 40 kt. Forecast soundings suggest cells capable of marginal hail and locally severe gusts will be possible. ....Eastern MT into northeast CO... Scattered storms will form during the late afternoon across western WY into southwest MT, and proceed northeastward with the mean wind aloft. Convection will likely arc southeastward across eastern WY and into northeast CO where heating will result in a marginally unstable air mass. Isolated severe gusts appear most probable with this activity. ...Jewell.. 08/21/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .