Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Aug 21 2024 17:00:09 ACUS02 KWNS 211700 SWODY2 SPC AC 211658 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with gusty winds and localized hail will be possible Thursday across parts of the central and northern Plains. ....Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, with minor disturbances rounding the ridge from the northern Rockies into the upper MS Valley. An upper trough will strength across the West as a parent upper low drops south along the OR Coast, with increasing winds across the Great Basin. To the east, a slow moving upper low will exit the New England area by Friday morning. At the surface, a trough will extend from the central Dakotas into the western TX, with a large area of high pressure east of the MS River. A narrow plume of 60s F dewpoints will aid thunderstorm development in the vicinity of the surface trough, with any appreciable shear limited to eastern Dakotas and MN area. ....Eastern CO into NE... A plume of midlevel moisture will exist from AZ into CO, which will aid storm development over the mountains by early/mid afternoon. Meanwhile, strong heating will occur along the Front Range, with southeast surface winds bringing 50s F dewpoints west. Storms will likely form after 22Z along the Front Range and surge eastward across the Plains through evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk as storms forward-propagate within the modest mid/high level flow regime, with eastward extent limited by capping across central NE and western KS. ....Eastern Dakotas into MN... Early day storms are likely to be ongoing over western parts of the area, aided by a deeper theta-e plume and southwest 850 mb winds. Enhanced midlevel flow over 35 kt will exist with any ongoing system, possibly a remnant MCV. Locally strong gusts or small hail may occur as the activity continues east into MN. Later in the day, heating will result in moderate instability from central SD into western MN, but capping as well as overall lift may be a limiting factor. However, at least isolated severe storms are probable near the surface trough and possibly on the western fringe of any leftover outflow boundaries. Sufficient lapse rates and deep-layer shear would support locally severe hail. ...Jewell.. 08/21/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .