Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 20 2024 19:03:54

AWUS01 KWNH 201903
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-210058-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0910
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Areas affected...near the CO/NM border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201858Z - 210058Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with hourly rain totals to
1.5" could lead to issues in burn scars and dry washes/arroyos
within an area of modest flash flood guidance values over the next
several hours.

Discussion...Veggie band satellite imagery shows recent shower and
thunderstorm development near the CO/NM border which per radar
estimates has shown hourly rain totals occasionally over 1".=20=20
Water vapor imagery shows a relative maximum in mid-level moisture
in this area.  Precipitable water values are ~0.75" per GPS data
and recent RAP runs.  ML CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg exists here, and
CIN is decreasing.  Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts which could
lead to convective organization.  Flash flood guidance values are
modest here and don't appear to be difficult to reach, given the
above ingredients.

HREF guidance from 12z suggests that convection should continue to
develop over the next several hours.  The concern is that any
convection could get tied to terrain and/or train from west to
east (aligned with the 700 hPa and mean wind flow) within area
terrain, which could cause problems where burn scars and/or dry
washes or arroyos exist.  Rebuilding CIN after sunset should lead
to decline in convective activity.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-I_Y7Ur9ocyypQobpf_SCNglsCdrbj8Iwth1MQJsxOg4ckI6SMpP4mvN_IEmE6m6vC7l=
tervE81hxC699CYtNY6BNO4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38310714 38190504 36930422 35760575 36450804=20
            37220868 38080855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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