Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Aug 20 2024 17:29:16 ACUS02 KWNS 201729 SWODY2 SPC AC 201727 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail and damaging gusts are expected to develop on Wednesday over parts of far eastern Montana and western North Dakota. ....Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper high will be centered over NM with a ridge extending north across the Plains. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough from MT to the Great Basin will move eastward, resulting in gradually lowering heights across the northern Rockies and Plains. To the east, a deep upper low will move very slowly from NY into northern New England. Generally cool air aloft will extend south across much of the East, where winds aloft will remain weak. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the upper Great Lakes, with generally dry and stable conditions over much of the MS and OH Valleys and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will remain west of the surface high and ahead of a developing trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains. As various embedded disturbances round the upper ridge and move across MT, WY, and the Dakotas, scattered strong and a few severe storms are anticipated as cooling aloft and increasing flow interact with the instability plume. ....Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered storms will develop over the higher terrain of southwest MT by 20Z, and spread northeastward into central MT. Gusty winds will be likely with this activity, but marginal hail will also be possible as deep-layer shear will be strong and the storms will encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent. By late afternoon and into the evening, some upscale growth is possible along outflow surges, with indications of a cluster or MCS developing over far eastern MT after 02Z. Damaging wind and hail would be likely with this activity, as it interacts with low 60s F dewpoints and southeast low-level winds/inflow. Farther south, additional widely spaced storm clusters are expected from eastern WY into CO. While these regions will be closer to the upper ridge and thus have less shear, ample lapse rates and instability will still favor severe gusts and hail locally, with storms generally dwindling by 06Z from central SD into western KS. ...Jewell.. 08/20/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .