Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Aug 20 2024 16:10:15

ACUS01 KWNS 201610
SWODY1
SPC AC 201608

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly
over parts of Montana.

....MT...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and
associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID.  Lift
associated with this system will overspread the mountains of
ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture
and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development.
As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a
deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass.  Steep low-level
lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor
damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters
of storms.  Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening
and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues.

....CO/NM...
A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak
perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO.
Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly
eastward into the Plains.  A few of the storms may produce gusty
winds or hail.

...Hart/Thornton.. 08/20/2024

$$

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