Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 19 2024 20:34:36

AWUS01 KWNH 192034
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-200233-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0907
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Areas affected...Front Range of Colorado and Southern
Wyoming...Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192033Z - 200233Z

Summary...The threat of isolated flash flooding will increase this
afternoon as additional storms form over the Rockies and drift
eastward.

Discussion...Convective initiation is underway across the Central
Rockies on the periphery of a monsoon high over the Southern
Plains. A Flash Flood Warning was recently issued for a nearly
stationary cell in Elbert County, CO which was anchored along the
confluence of two mesoscale boundaries evident from KFTG.

With persistent heating and post-frontal upslope flow feeding into
the terrain, an uptick in storm coverage is expected over the next
several hours. By 21z, the RAP suggests 1000-200 J/kg of MLCAPE
and PWATS around 1.0-1.25" (around the 75th to 90th percentile for
the region) will focus east of the terrain to support rainfall
rates of 1.5-2"/hr within the most intense cells. Fairly strong
effective shear profiles of 30-40 kts will support organized
multicells and possibly supercells--which could locally enhance
the flash flood risk owing to slow RM storm motions (10-15 kts).

Over the next several hours, HREF neighborhood probabilities show
an increasing chance of 1-3 HR FFG exceedence (25-45%), with the
LPMM highlighting localized amounts of 1-2" through the 0-3Z time
frame. Accordingly, the threat of isolated flash flooding will
increase as 1-3 HR FFGs are in the 1-1.5" range across the region.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7wzwfTyfMbHSs1rUAb-KjE_reXUj0m-XpMuGT7V7mf88XXHk8-ze574iMIJ6Vnotq6Wr=
9Hl-oj1_leiCnmZRqoAO2hc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41610404 40760308 38440329 38350459 39710469=20
            40740529 41270515=20

=3D =3D =3D
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