Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 19 2024 17:11:34

ACUS02 KWNS 191711
SWODY2
SPC AC 191709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of
central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of
the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are
the primary threats.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow
progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the
northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify
slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered
in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the
eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western
flank of the surface high in the High Plains region.

....Montana...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during
the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the
northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete,
but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow
dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds
are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse
rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of
large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be
minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg
in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern
Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of
greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent
appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities.

....Black Hills into western Nebraska...
Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an
isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during
the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40
kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the
afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a
storm develop and mature.

...Wendt.. 08/19/2024

$$

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