Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Aug 19 2024 16:19:33 ACUS01 KWNS 191619 SWODY1 SPC AC 191617 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER WESTERN MONTANA.... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ....High Plains... Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from MT to CO, with several weak perturbations noted on water vapor imagery within the flow. Steep mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable CAPE later today for strong/severe thunderstorm development. Clusters of convection will form over the mountains and foothills of CO/WY and spread eastward into the higher instability axis. Other areas of storms are expected to develop over the Black Hills, and across parts of eastern MT. Large hail is the main concern with these storms, although the risk of isolated damaging wind will also increase during the late afternoon and evening as outflows congeal. ....Western MT... 12z model guidance continues to agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon over the mountains of western MT. This region will be on the eastern fringe of stronger flow aloft, and where full sunshine will aid in destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As storms move off the higher terrain, merging outflows may result in strong/damaging wind gusts in the more organized storm clusters. One mitigating factor for severe in this region would be if the persistent cloud cover east of the mountains limits destabilization. ....Southeast VA/Northeast NC... Strong daytime heating is occurring today over parts of southeast VA and northeast NC, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s will yield MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected. Low and mid-level winds are relatively weak today, suggesting that storms will struggle to organize. However, given the extent of heating, a few cells may occasionally pose a risk of gusty winds through the early evening. ....New England... An upper trough is moving across the Northeast US today, with the associated surface cold front tracking eastward across much of New England this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the front. Visible satellite imagery suggest considerable cloud cover over this region, limiting daytime heating and suppressing steeper low-level lapse rates. This should lessen the overall severe threat today. Nevertheless, a few storms could produce gusty winds and/or hail. ...Hart/Thornton.. 08/19/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .