Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 19 2024 08:53:36

ACUS48 KWNS 190853
SWOD48
SPC AC 190851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build over the Great
Plains from Thursday to Saturday. During this time period, an axis
of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain over the
central and northern Plains. As surface temperatures warm each day,
isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the
moist airmass. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates
should be favorable for a severe threat, with large hail and severe
wind gusts possible. However, large-scale ascent and the resultant
convective coverage is forecast to be limited, which should reduce
the overall severe threat coverage.

....Sunday/Day7 and Monday/Day 8...
An upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast by the
ECMWF to move quickly northeastward across the Intermountain West on
Sunday, and into the northern Plains on Monday. Ahead of this
feature, the medium range models suggest that a broad corridor of
strong instability will be in place. Although convective coverage
may remain relatively isolated on Sunday and Monday, the strong
instability should be favorable for a severe threat. Large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts would be possible in the northern Plains
on Sunday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. However,
there is a wide dispersion of solutions concerning the timing of the
upper-level trough. This suggest that uncertainty is substantial
from Sunday into Monday. Once the models become in better agreement,
a threat area may need to be considered early next week if it
appears that convective coverage over the warm sector will be
sufficient.

...Broyles.. 08/19/2024

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