Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Aug 19 2024 04:24:55

AWUS01 KWNH 190424
FFGMPD
RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-190823-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0904
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Areas affected...southern New York state/Long Island and eastern
New Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190423Z - 190823Z

Summary...Ongoing, significant flash flood potential should
continue for another 2-4 hours or so (through 08Z/4am EST).

Discussion...Scattered to numerous thunderstorm activity has
evolved into an elongated, WSW-ENE oriented band extending across
much of Long Island currently.  The storms are abundant heavy rain
producers due to their favorable orientation for training
(parallel to steering flow aloft) and location relative to
moist/unstable low-level advection (1.8+ inch PW and 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE).  Areas of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates (both observed and
estimated per MRMS) were contributing to a number of significant
impacts especially in western and central Long Island, where
numerous water rescues were reported.

The overall regime is expected to continue for at least another
2-4 hours.  Upstream heavy rainfall across east-central New Jersey
is expected to migrate eastward and provide additional rainfall
across much of Long Island through 06-08Z.  Western and central
portions of Long Island are expected to experience the heaviest
rainfall from this activity.   Continued 1-3 inch/hr rain rates
are expected at times, and localized 3-4 inch rainfall totals are
possible.  Significant impacts remain likely in this regime.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5F5W9rJgMVG9PJ9zTZIm7xYS_9w9g6fWnq0e2rI57xcySlhtvjAnOo7W0PjW5sn_D1sp=
KkmqOv2WJPVZe49NwiFOwUg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41437170 40997121 40327224 39967366 39917472=20
            40427486 40987392 41347278=20

=3D =3D =3D
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